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AIIB on 5th anniversary: What went well? What went badly?

Interview January 2021

Personal Note: Many thanks Mr. Jin Liqn for your kind invitation to a close door meeting the first day of the Summit in Lake Como, Italy. Ambrossetti, House. ( Sept 2019)




"Wuxi is an important manufacturing center of China. By the end of 2012, the valued added volume of big enterprises in Wuxi ranked Nº 8 in China, the production and design capacity of large- scale integrated Circuit (IC) listed Nº 1 and Nº 4 in China respectively. The strong manufacturing sector of the Yangtze River Delta area with Wuxi as its geographic center offers broad market for the development of service ousourcing industry".


Located in the middle of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Kunming covers an area of 21,011sq kilometers and is 1,891 meters above the sea level.With a population of 7.21 million, Kunming is inhabited by 26 ethics groups.Thanks to its amicable climate, Kunming is known as the City of Eternal Spring and the City of Flowers in China. Kunming is thus one of the most popular tourist destinations in China.

Kunming is abundant in natural resources. It is one of the largest producers of phosphorus and salt mine in China. Kunming boast over 1,200 types of wild plants and 460 kinds of flowers. Yunnan Baiyao, Pharmaceutical Group, Kunming Pharmaceutical Corporation, Panlong Yunhai Pharmaceutical Corporation and Dianhong Pharmaceutical Group are well-known pharmaceutical business in China.

Kunming has an effcient platform for attracting investment. There are four national-level development zones and fifteen provincial-level industrial parks. The zones and parks cover an area of 1061 sq kilometers. Thanks to the national Gateway Policy and other preferential policies, investors conming to Kunming enjoy the lowest service charges among provincial capital cities in China. In 2010, the Kunming Municipal Government promulgated The Plan on Development of Outsourcing Industries in Kunming during the 12th Five Year Plan and The Preferential Policies on Facilitating Development of Software Industry and Outsouricng Industry in Kunming



Gansu is the important origin of Chinese civilization and the communicational intersection of the ancient Chinese and western civilization. The State Council´s Several Opinions on the Further Support of Economic and Social Development in Gansu Province positions Gansu as the important treasure house of Chinese cultural resources, and clearly states that efforts must be done to build Gansu into a culturally- developed province. After the sixth plenary session of the 17th Conference of CPC, the Provincial Commitee and Government of Gansu has profoundly understood the cultural situation and proposed the establishment of the demostration zone of protection and innovative development of Chinese civilization. The 5th plenary session of the 11th National People´s Congress confirms the construction of Gansu into the national demostration zone of protection and innovative development of Chinese civilization and puts it on the list of the key projects of 2012. The demostration zone will exert great efforts in building the culture industry zone of the Silk Road, the utilization exhibition base of the eastern history and culture, the protection demostration base of the natural and human resources in Hexi Corridor, and the development and innovation base of the modern and national culture in Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan circle. 12 plates will also be put into the construction, which includes the protection of cultural relics, protection of great ruins, protection of non-material heritage, protection of the red culture, integration pilot of urban and rual culture, deep integration of culture and eco-tourism, construction of the cultural creativity industry park, development of the cultural brand, exhibition of festivals and celebrations. Centering on the silk road culture, Fuxi culture, Dunhuang culture, the Yellow River culture, it will build the cultural protection and th pattern of innovation and development which relies on the regional central city.


Automobile, petrochemical and agricultural processing are the pillar industries while medical and optoelectronic industries are of competitiviness. FAW is the cradle of auto industry in China , and is now capable of the research and production of heavy, middle, light vehicles and sedans. FAW is one of the Fortune 500 entreprises whose annual output exceeded 1.68 millions units in 2010. Petro China Jilin Petrochemical Company the largest acrylonitrile base in China, ranks among the petrochemical entreprise whose annual output exceeds 10 millions tons.



China Aims for Soft Landing, Says World Bank

April 12, 2012

New Report says China can lay foundation for sustainable long-term development

BEIJING, April 12, 2012 – A new World Bank report projects GDP growth in China will be 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8.6 percent in 2013. The China Quarterly Update, released today, says that the prospects for a gradual adjustment of growth remain high.

“China’s gradual slowdown is expected to continue into 2012, as consumption growth slows somewhat, investment growth decelerates more pronouncedly and external demand remains weak,” says Ardo Hansson, Lead Economist for China. “The risks of overheating are moderating, increasing the prospects to achieve a soft landing.”

The China Quarterly Update, a regular assessment of China’s economy, identifies as the key near-term policy challenge the need to facilitate a soft landing and sustain growth. Key risk factors include the weak and uncertain growth prospects of high-income economies and the evolution of the ongoing correction in China’s property markets.  Sufficient policy space exists to respond to downside risks, but any policy response would need to be carefully crafted keeping in mind longer-term effects and objectives.

The Update notes that the burden of any policy response should in the first instance fall on fiscal policy, with measures supporting consumption first priority. Reserve requirements could be tweaked further to ease the availability of credit, but policy rate action should best be reserved for potential downside scenarios since real interest rates are already accommodative. Administrative measures have been helpful in cooling the property market. Looking ahead they should be substituted by market-based measures that raise the cost of capital and expand the range of investment opportunities.

China’s longer-term outlook will depend on its management of central structural challenges. As the traditional drivers of growth weaken over time, GDP growth may gradually slow. Sustaining strong per capita income growth requires invigorating underlying fundamentals of growth, especially productivity improvement.  To enhance the scope for competition and to redefine the source of China’s competitive advantage from low cost to higher value on the strength of innovation will be key.

In the past rapid growth and structural change has come at the price of economic, social and environmental imbalances. Looking forward it will be important to sustain the ongoing shift in focus from the rate of growth towards the quality of development.

In this respect, Philip Schellekens, Senior Economist and main author of the Update observes: “the current episode of cyclical weakness shows the limits of China’s export-, credit- and investment-led growth model. As already predicated in the 12th Five Year Plan, strong progress on the structural reform agenda will help China achieve the objective of improving the quality of its development.”


The World Bank

China Quarterly Update - April 2012

April 12, 2012

GDP growth in China will be 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8.6 percent in 2013. The World Bank's Lead Economist for China talks about China's recent economic developments, economic outlook and policy priorities.


  • The Chinese economy is in the midst of a gradual slowdown due to the combined impact of a weaker global economic environment and tighter domestic policies.
  • The prospects for a soft landing remain high, with growth expected at 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8.6 percent in 2013.
  • The ongoing slowdown is partly welcome to the extent that it reflects a deceleration in growth from above-potential in a context where potential growth itself is gradually slowing.
  • The overriding near-term policy priority is to facilitate the gradual slowdown, while guarding against downside risks which remain elevated.
  • The longer-term policy challenge is to reinvigorate growth in the face of the projected structural slowdown and to rebalance the patterns of development.
  • Through commitment to the structural reform agenda laid out in the 12th Five-Year Plan, China can lay the foundations for sustainable long-term development.


  • Slow growth in the Euro area and sluggish recovery in the US limited the contribution of next exports, as exports decelerated more rapidly than imports.
  • Tighter domestic policy conditions dampened investment – particularly in infrastructure and real estate.
  • Consumption growth remained robust as consumer confidence was sustained and household income continued to grow rapidly.
  • Inflation has been on a declining trend, with food price inflation receding as one-off factor faded and nonfood price inflation easing as global and domestic conditions weakened.
  • The balance of payments softened, with the trade balance falling into deficit early 2012 as manufacturing exports slowed while commodity prices remained high.


  • Cyclical weakness is expected to dominate the near-term outlook, with growth projected at 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8.6 percent in 2013.
  • Domestic demand would contribute 8.4 percentage points to growth in 2012 as consumption slows slightly and investment decelerates rather sharply.
  • As world trade is anticipated to remain weak, external demand would subtract some 0.3 percentage points from growth in 2012.
  • Significant price adjustment – both absolute and relative – is in the pipeline for 2012, with inflation expected to trend downwards to 3.2 percent, the external terms of trade likely to improve and the pace of currency appreciation anticipated to slow.
  • China’s current account surplus is projected to increase slightly to 3 percent in 2012 and 3.3 percent in 2013, with foreign reserve accumulation expected to moderate.
  • While our central projection remains for a gradual slowdown, downside risks remain elevated and center on the strength of the recovery in high-income countries and the ongoing adjustment in domestic property markets.
  • The longer-term outlook will depend on how China manages key structural challenges.
  • As the traditional growth drivers gradually fade, , China is expected to see slower growth.
  • In addition, the welcome efforts to rebalance the economy should also alter the pattern of growth and improve its quality.
  • These trends would play out gradually over time, with illustrative scenarios showing growth decelerating from recent rates of 10 percent to about 5 percent in around 20 years time.


  • The overriding policy challenge for the near term is to facilitate a soft landing.
  • While the prospects for such an outcome remain high, there is concern is that growth slows too quickly.
  • However, sufficient policy space should exist to respond to downside risks.
  • The burden of any countercyclical response should primarily fall on fiscal policy, with adjustments welcome as well to the stance of monetary policy.
  • The policy response would need to be carefully crafted, keeping in mind longer-term effects and objectives.
  • Fiscal measures to support consumption would attract first priority (such as targeted tax cuts, social welfare spending and other social expenditures).
  • Reserve requirements could be tweaked further to ease the availability of credit, with policy rate action best reserved for downside scenarios given already accommodative rates.
  • Ongoing administrative efforts have been helpful in cooling the property markets, but would preferably be substituted eventually by market-based measures that raise the cost of capital and expand the range of investment opportunities.
  • The policy challenge for the longer term is to continue steering the Chinese economy towards a more sustainable growth path.
  • Given the anticipated structural slowdown, this would involve reinvigorating the underlying fundamentals for growth to secure healthy per capita income growth.
  • Addressing the imbalances would involve sustaining the ongoing shift of focus from the rate of growth to the quality of development.
  • New efforts can help China sustain its competitive advantage by progressively shifting from low cost to higher value supported by innovation.
  • New approaches can also help sustain poverty alleviation as the rate of poverty reduction becomes steadily less sensitive to economic growth.
  • Similarly, new strategies can help ‘green’ growth and protect the environment.
  • With the 12th Five Year Plan laying out a comprehensive agenda of structural reform, what will matter most now is the commitment to reform and implementation.


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